GMing and You or So you?ve decided to play God.

Hi I?m Bosch and I?ve been GMing for quite a while although not here, over this time I?ve developed a few ideas and pointers to help me stagger through an RP and hopefully give everyone a good time (much like a good brothel owner). In this article I?m going to share my thoughts on RPing. I?m not saying I?m totally right or that my tips will work all the time but just whats worked for me.

Before we begin though I?d like to clear up a few definitions.

An RP.

A Role Play which is the whole reason we are here. Notice that it?s not a RPG as in a Role Playing Game. I draw a distinction because ?Game? implies competition which I feel it not the point of an RP. To me an RP is about a group of people telling a story from the point of view of multiple characters. You can disagree with me but I believe that good RPs are more about cooperation than competition.

A GM.

This stands for Game Master and I wish there was another term for this like ?story leader? or ?coordinator? as it fits the role better. The name is a nod to the early of Table Top RPGs where one person would present situations for the other characters to react to. For are uses it the person running the show who comes up with the world and administrates the RP.

Should I be a GM?

Yes, GMing is fun and a great way to meet lots of RPers, I think everyone should give it a go at least once if just to see what it?s like.
Being a GM takes three things an Idea, Dedication and Communication. Much like a tripod if you?re missing one the whole thing is guaranteed to fall over.

World Building

Without a doubt this is the most important thing you will do as a GM because it?s what attracts people to your RP and what keeps them there. I find it helps to think in terms of Genres and where they overlap. So maybe you want to do a crime RP but in a Sci-Fi Setting or a Modern Fantasy RP with comedy elements. The reason thinking in terms of genre is a good thing is it makes it easier to explain your RP quickly to potential RPers.

Once you have settled on a general theme it?s time to put your mark on it. You need to work out the politics, history, groups technology, magic, races and everything else that goes into your world.

For the purposes of this Guide we?re going to use an example RP that I?m literally making up as we go along. It?s a Sci-FI Vampire Hunter RP called BloodCell. See just in that sentence you already have an idea what?s going on.

Plot

The Plot is very important but secondary to world building as the plot can vary wildly from what you planned to what happens, this is because of RPer involvement. In my opinion the RP should start with a big event, a murder or an attack or a wedding, something dramatic that immediately gives the RPers something to do. Nothing kills an RP faster than the ?getting to know you phase? where characters just parrot the information on their CS. Start strong and kick off the RP with a bang.

The second important thing to note is as the GM the plot is your character and all other concerns are secondary. It?s your job to get the RP through and finished. That means you must be willing to sacrifice characters for the good of the story. Sometimes you can have fun with this. For example write a full CS for a character, big them up in you first three or four posts and then kill them. I mean really kill them dramatically and brutally, this is often a good way to introduce an antagonist, who odds are you will be playing.

The Third most important thing is that you have a plot that is an ensemble thing. Do not have a main character. Firstly if the main person leaves your screwed, secondly it will give too much control to a single RPer, you?re the GM so you are in control. Thirdly it means the other RPers are bored and reduced to glorfied NPCs. Nobody likes this.

So subplots are important. That basically means making sure everybody has something to do. We?ll come back to this below.
Ok so if we return to our example RP BloodCell we know we?re going to have Vampires. But I don?t really like the sparkly kind of Vamps, I like the pure evil variety. So maybe Vampirism has become an epidemic which has led to the founding of evil Vampire extremist groups. So we need something to fight these terrorist Vampires.

Werewolves?

Too clich?d.

It?s a Sci-Fi setting so why not Cyborgs or robots like Ghost in the Shell?

This could work as both groups will have impressive strength which will led to impressive fight scenes while neither are entirely human which could give the more philosophical RPers something to sink their teeth into (Ha Ha.. sink their teeth into.. see it?s about vampires and they bite people you know, with their teeth... nevermind). Additionally maybe the vampires are genuinely discriminated against adding another layer for thoughtful RPers to explore.

Thinking about how people are going to approach your RP is key to developing a good plot and World.

Drumming up some business.

The Interest Check (Int Chk) should give a brief outline of the RP?s world, plot and comparable works.

So the Int Chk for BloodCell could read like this.

In the Year 2051 Vampirism has become an epidemic with afflicted individuals forming their own subculture and feeding off the living. Faced with a disaster the government forms the AVUs or Anti Vampirism Units to seek out and destroy Vampiric activity. The members of the AVU ex humans turned into Cyborgs designed to hunt and kill Vampires.

This RP will follow a unit of AVU called the BloodCell as they track down a groupl of Vampires believed to have taken part in a terrorist action.

The RP will be similar in nature to Ghost in the Shell, Day Breakers and Blade Runner.

The Title for the Int Chk topic should be a briefer description.

Sci-Fi Vampire Hunter RP

Remember to bump it when you want more RPers.

What about Roleplayers Wanted?

In my experience you get less hits with the Roleplayers Wanted section but every little helps.

Remember to frame to topic title in terms of Role Players wanted.

Looking for RPers to play Cyborg Agents in a Vampire Hunting Agency.

Then provide a link to the Int Check.

Remember to bump it whenever you need more RPers.

Time to Make an RP?

Unfortunately I can?t tell you what the magic group size is as it varies depending on RP type. What I would suggest is take on at least two more RPers than you feel you need. This is because RPers are possibly the biggest flakes you will meet in any walk of life at a few will disappear in the first few posts. At least if you have more than you need the drop outs won?t be felt as keenly.

Once you?ve a good size group it?s time to Click the create new Roleplay button.

Creating an RP.

Hells horses that?s a lot of little boxes. In this section I?ll give a brief run through of those boxes.

To help we?re going to use our fictional RP BloodCell. Anything in italics is what goes into the field.

Name
BoodCell

Descprition
The RP is set in 2051 and the planet is facing an epidemic of Vampirism and terrorist actions. The Vampires are treated as second class citizens and have formed their own subcultures. While most are peaceful some have begun feeding off the living and fighting for Vampire control of the planet. Faced with a potential war against an undead foe the government forms the AVUs or Anti Vampirism Units the seeks out and destroys Anti-Human Vampiric activity. The members of the AVU ex humans turned into Cyborgs designed to hunt and kill Vampires.

The RP group will be playing the members of a AVU called BloodCell thats has been tasked to investigate some disturbing reports...
(A rehash of the Int check is acceptable)

Tags
Original, Vampire, Sci-Fi. Put whatever you feel is relevant just make sure you stand over your decisions for example If I was use the word Magic that would be wrong because magic dosen?t feature in the RP and will lead to confusion.

Setting
The BoodCell Universe. I always had trouble with this question but I guess it?s if you have a successful RP setting you can set other RPs in the same setting but tell a different story.

Character approval.
I always say yes to approval because you don?t want any random asshole rocking up and getting their sticky mitts on your RP.

Is this role play original?
The answer should always be yes, but sadly some people make fanfiction RPs, if your RP is a fanfiction deal (this includes RPs set in the same universe but featuring none of the characters) you need to tick no. I?ll discuss my feelings on Non Original RPs below.

Rules.
In this section you lay out the laws. Things to consider are what is acceptable sexual and violent content, what is the minimum number of posts per week, is there a post word count (you should never have a word count on posts, sometimes a post needs to be a one liner), grammatical standards (remember not everyone received the same level of education as you, speaks the same language as you or has the same mental facilities as you. So long as they can write a good understandable story then live and let live.) etc.

Introduction.
In this section you want to introduce the RP in much the same way as you did in the Int Chk. Provide a brief description for people just browsing.

Press submit and you?re done.

First steps.

The way this site is set up you must have an active character in an RP to be able to create OOC topic. So go create your character. Keep in mind your character is really the Plot or the RP it?s self, that?s your baby so ensure the character you create is important enough to drive the plot in the opening posts, the ?big bad? and ?quest giver? are often good choices. Odds are you?ll have multiple characters but you just need this one so you can make topics and get to administrating.

Once you have created your character go make a new topic in the OOC title like ?The World Of BloodCell? or ?The BloodCell Primer? or ?The BloodCell Bible?. You want to get across that this is where the World is explained.

In this topic you describe the world, groups technology social structure of the world you constructed, before you were trying to entice people by providing enough info without overloading them. Now is the time for sensory overload, include everything you came up with during the World Building phase.

Now you need to go back to the Introduction of your RP and ensure this ?Bible? topic is linked to the introduction so people browsing will know you put in the time world building. There is nothing worse than an RP that the GM put no thought into especially when it?s high concept.

You could also put your world building on the intro page but I feel it looks cluttered. That?s just personal taste.

Bible maintenance will become very important in the opening days as RPers join and ask questions you never considered. A popular one is post apocalyptic currencies because nobody every thinks about it, freaks out trying to do something original and inevitably winds up using bottle caps.

Character Sheets

The character sheet system here is pretty comprehensive but if you require additional information just request it in the introduction.
You should view character sheets as tryouts, if an RPer can?t write a good CS odds are they won?t be able to write a good post. Additionally if they make no mention of the world you built or use very generic terms maybe you should question how closely they are going to read the posts of others. Your RP needs players to be successful but one good RPer is worth twenty poor ones.
Additionally try to take a chance on Newbies, if they have a quality CS give them a shot.

If you do refuse a CS it?s always nice to say way and offer constructive criticism. You don?t have to be harsh but be honest and let people know it?s nothing personal.

First posts.

These are all about setting the scene and letting people establish their characters. Here is where you want to describe your big event that will kick off the RP. Excitement will be high at this point so you want to capitalise on that.

For Example BloodCell could start off with a group of Vampires taking hostages including an AVU member (perhaps you could take this character and make them a bit of a Billy Badass). The RPers are scrambled to take care of it but before they can get there the Vamps detonate an explosive device killing all inside. Including your Billy Badass character in an ?opening episode? plot twist.

Oh no. The RP kicks off and the characters have to chase down leads across your Sci-Fi world, maybe mop up some surviving Vamps or provide first aid to survivors. The important thing is everyone has something to do.

You could also set up a couple of throw backs. Maybe Billy Badass survives the explosion, gets turned and comes back later as a Vampire Cyborg with a grudge. This is something good GMs are able to do, they leave little lose threads that can be picked up later in the story, sometimes they come off, other times they don?t. People tend to remember the ones that work out though and it can give the impression you have a grand masterplan when you actually got lucky. Given the interactivity of RPing and quality of the story, credibility can be somewhat stretched and your RPers won?t call bullshit if plots get dropped or merged into others. Often these things develop organically, maybe a one shot character turns out to be popular with RPers so next time you were going to use a faceless NPC use the popular one.

Another thing you want to do (if you are this way inclined) is try to set the theme in your first few posts if you going mega happy RP crack a lot of Jokes in the opening posts or if you want the opposite write like a depressed Raymond Chandler.

So that?s setting up an RP, now we?ll look at keeping one going.

The OOC

If you view this as hosting a party I find it makes more sense. It?s your job to make sure everyone is having a good time, getting introduced to each other and feel they can drop into the OOC just for a chat or to shoot the shat. You can do a couple of forum games here, discuss the plot, talk about whatever. The point is you?re trying to make friends (which is kind of the point) a group of RPers that can do this are more likely to stick together through the lean times. Its your job to provide the initial spark but pretty soon people will just be interacting normally.

The other purpose is announcements. Maybe there has been a pretty dramatic development in one of the posts. Make sure to point out something big has happened as some people only skim and might miss out. You should also praise people have wrote particularly well as the RPers deserve it. To you the whole thing is planned in your head, to them they have to get inside your head and then translate that into a post. It also gives other RPers an idea what you looking for.

PMs

I like mysteries and I like surprises as I assume others do as well. Therefore if I have an important plot point to drop on someone I do it via PM and collaborate with other RPers in an effort to surprise other RPers. I also encourage RPers to do this amongst themselves as I like being shocked when a Plot takes an unexpected turn. For example when an RPer makes their character fail to complete a goal is a beautifully awesome for me as I have to adapt the story on the fly. It keeps things interesting. Unfortunately few RPers get this and will often be worried it makes their character look weak. I never understood this ?Prison Yard? mentality, we?re playing make believe on the internet at the end of the day, it?s ok to take chance.

The other side of PMs is keeping the rabble in line. I?ve found a PM is way more effective method of pulling someone up than going public on the OOC. Publicity just leads to bruised egos and toys being thrown out of the pram it?s much easier to drop a quick PM and keep things nice and civil.

In this last section I?m going address some General Questions.

Nobody is joining my Amazing RP?

First off keep the Int Chk and Roleplayers wanted sections active by bumping them. Secondly ensure they are neatly designed and well written. A poorly written block of text is sure to put people off.

If you have friends on the site, PM them to see if they fancy getting involved, if you have RPers signed up get them to recruit their friends.

If none of this works maybe it?s time to look at your idea, is it original ? Have you made it clear what is happening? Have you made it seem like there is something to do?

What?s the deal with originality?

My RPs are always original, sure they may be influenced by other works but most times they are a amalgamation of lots of influences. Using the BloodCell example it?s pretty obvious where I picked up ideas (Van Helsing in Blade Runner after making a quick stop at Deus Ex) the advantage to having my own setting is I?m not constrained by cannon or existing characters. Consider why there are no James Bond RPs, the chaos over who plays Bond would be crazy. Instead we have spy RPs that are heavy on Women and Tuxedos, James bond in everything but name.

In addition Original RPs are better because it means the GM has taken time to invest in something they believe in. This indicates a certain level of motivation and Dedication.

Any tips and tricks for GMing?

GMs love giving people choices but sometimes wuss out on consequences. Lets say in our example RP an RPer has a choice between saving two RPers, only one can be saved. Some would see this as a binary choice. A or B. Good RPers will see many more. Maybe their character says ?Screw this, I hate both these jerks.? And leaves the room. Maybe the character says take me instead. Maybe they try to save both and everyone dies. The point is you have got to be brutal with the consequences of these decisions.

It?s vital you make it clear from the get go that you plan to have situations like this where one character can completely screw over another (in the name of drama) and that death is very likely. Some people might get annoyed their character dies but always keep in mind your allegiance is to the story, if that pisses some people off along the way so be it, but when it?s all said and done and you?ve run an awesome RP people will want to be involved with your next one.

Of course it?s only fair to allow RPers to come back with another character.

Another Idea is to take a break from traditional types of RPs maybe fantasy has become stale why not try something else. Additionally you could try RPing in different ways. An example of this would be an RP I?m running where instead of traditional posts I give people jobs and they write how the job is completed in the form of a short story. Creativity is number one here, if you can imagine it give it a go.

So that?s it, maybe it was all stuff you knew or maybe you think I?m full of BS or maybe it helped out and you have more questions. Whatever your thoughts please post below and I?ll try to answer.

Oh, BloodCell isn?t an RP I ever intend to make so if anyone thinks they can make it work feel free to take it. I?m just not sure the world is ready for Cyborg Vampires.

Your Pal Bosch.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RolePlayGateway/~3/Dj-7p05UlFU/viewtopic.php

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A New Year's dinner for one watched by millions - The Local

Nobody cares to eat alone, but in Germany few people can imagine ringing in the New Year without watching a little-known British comedy skit "Dinner for One." The Local explains a Teutonic tradition.

No matter what you do on New Year's Eve in Germany: melting lead, lighting fireworks, or simply knocking back champagne, there is one thing that nearly all Silvester parties have in common. ? a 20 minute television interlude to watch a black-and-white sketch in English called "Dinner for One" from 1963. Loved in Germany, it?s virtually unknown in the rest of the world.

Dinner for who?

Okay, let's start with the basics: The dinner is for Miss Sophie, the last member of an old English family. The sketch, which is also known as "The 90th Birthday," is about the old lady's anniversary celebration in the dining room of her musty mansion with Miss Sophie ? played by May Warden ? sitting on the head end of the table and Butler James ? played Freddie Frinton ? making sure no glass (or no eye) in the house stays dry.

Why is it so popular on New Year's Eve?

The first time the programme was aired on New Year's Eve in 1972, the sketch was more a filler in between broadcasts. But due to its great popularity it quickly gained a regular place in the Silvester TV schedule. It holds the record of the most repeated show on television and regularly attracts millions of viewers to each New Year's Eve.

Why is the dinner only for one? Doesn't the old lady have any guests?

Sure, Miss Sophie has invited her friends, but they unfortunately all died some time ago. Not to be hindered by this slight setback the dinner goes ahead as usual and her guests are (or were):

Sir Toby

Mr Winterbottom

Admiral von Schneider

Mr Pommeroy

All men? What a saucy old granny...

Well, some people say all of them have been former admirers. Unsuccessful ones, though. Her butler James is the only one who gets lucky on an annual basis, but we'll get to that later.

And what?s so funny about the sketch?

The sketch's comedy comes from Butler James taking the places of all of Miss Sophie's long dead friends. First he has to serve all "guests" drinks for every course (in his capacity as butler, of course) and as none of them are actually there anymore, he has to empty their glasses himself.

So a boozy butler and his mistress fake a party?

Pretty much! James slips into the different personas and toasts Miss Sophie in each guest?s appropriate way. For Admiral von Schneider, for example, he clicks his heels together every time and salutes with a loudSkol of the top of his voice. For Mr Winterbottom on the other hand, he puts on a thick northern English accent.

We?re still waiting for the joke...

Hang on, it's coming. Because with every drink he slugs back, the usually reserved and refined demeanour of Butler James starts to slip as he slurs and stumbles his way around the table. Added to this an unfortunately positioned tiger skin rug, the head of which James has to overcome on his frequent trips to the bar. Appropriate for the era when it was made ? the whole routine had a healthy touch of slapstick.

And Miss Sophie?

The old gal never leaves her place and is totally oblivious about the amount of the butler's alcohol consumption and orders him to serve the respective courses. Dinner consists of:

Mulligatawny soup ? with sherry

Haddock ? with white wine

Chicken ? with champagne

Fruit ? with port

Mulligatawny-what? Doesn't really sound like a German dinner.

Well, it isn't! The actors May Warden and Freddie Frinton first performed "Dinner for One" in the British seaside town Blackpool in 1962. The German entertainer Peter Frankenfeld, discovered the duo, brought them to Germany and the sketch was seen on his live show on regional public broadcaster NDR one year later.

Really? Wasn't it recorded in Britain?

No, it was recorded in Hamburg in 1963. The broadcaster NDR had all the props ready, as well as a polar bear skin rug, that never was used, however, since Frinton brought his own tiger skin. After all, the stumbling over the rug was well rehearsed and depended on the height of the head. The polar bear ended up in the NDR?s prop closet ? covered with dust and a sign around its head saying "Freddie Frinton."

So far so good, but why is it all shown in English?

Despite the Teutonic habit to dub anything foreign on telly, "Dinner for one" was never put into German unlike everything else on TV. The dialogue is simple and repetitive and the introduction of the sketch comes in German. Actor Heinz Piper explains the only two sentences you need to know.

Butler James: "Same procedure as last year, Miss Sophie?"

Miss Sophie: "Same procedure as every year, James."

Right, not exactly rocket science, huh?

Not exactly, no. And still Piper managed to make a mistake in both of the sentences. Instead of saying "AS every year, he said "THAN every year". Protests and angry letters from English teachers across the country made the NDR correct the grammar mistake. It simply got dubbed instead of re-recorded, but when you listen closely you can tell.

Does it come at least with German subtitles?

Some versions do. In the late 1960s even a colour version was planned, but due to Frinton's sudden death in 1968 it was never realised. In recent years there have been versions in regional dialects like Low German, Swiss-German, or Hessian.

But don't worry; you'll know when to laugh, as even the recording crew is giggling along.

What do the Brits have to say about all this?

Surprising to most Germans ? who consider the skit quintessential British humour ? hardly anyone in Britain knows it even exists. And for those who do, the significance it has for the Germans and the place it holds in their hearts is rather perplexing.

Oh, what was that with the butler getting lucky?

Right, in the last scene, Miss Sophie gets ready for bed and calls over her shoulder for James one last time while climbing up the staircase to her bedroom. He slurs: "The same procedure as last year?" and Miss Sophie answers "The same procedure as every year." With James promising he'll do his best "as every year," they both go upstairs together.

Dinner for One can be viewed on the ARD's regional television affiliates throughout New Year's Eve. For a listing, search here here.

Source: http://www.thelocal.de/society/20121230-16465.html

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Something from nothing I: The relevance of science to philosophy ...

Do theistic metaphysical systems such as Thomism or Scotism have any stakes in the findings of the empirical sciences? ?A discussion of formal causes in science and challenges to the principle of causality.

According to the positivists, the very existence and success of these sciences is a refutation of religious and metaphysical ways of thinking; these are thereby proved either wrong or meaningless according to whether they have any empirical content. ?This view is notoriously self-refuting, and I trust few of my readers have much sympathy for it. ?Those who see value in both metaphysics and science will therefore claim that the two address different questions and different aspects of being.

For some, this conviction leads to a very sharp line drawn between the empirical sciences and the philosophy of nature; the former addresses the phenomenal world, the latter ontological reality, and the findings of one have very little significance for the other. ?The existential Thomist Jacques Maritain often seemed to take this view. ?Maritain thought he could intuit metaphysical principles, not by abstraction from the observed world, but directly through an ?intuition of being? that he was convinced he enjoyed (see especially A Preface to Metaphysics). ?Using this ?intuition?, things that seem logically perfectly possible (e.g. infinite space or a contingent being existing for an infinite time?c.f. his defense of the 3rd way in Approaches to God) can be judged actually impossible. ?Thus, Thomists often assert that the emergence of life, and sometimes of every new species, requires direct divine intervention, even though the observed laws of nature would seem to have no trouble accommodating such things. ?For an example of Maritain?s intuition at work, consider his treatment of general relativity in The Degrees of Knowledge. ?He considered the question of whether spacetime is really curved or if gravity simply mimics such an effect, a reasonable philosophical question. ?Maritain?s response, as I recall, is that when we imagine space, we must think of it as Euclidean, therefore space is really flat. ?What kind of an argument is this?

I am unsatisfied with this overly strict separation of philosophy of nature and science. ?It reduces science to a matter of data fitting with no connection to underlying truth. ?As Stephen Barr and I have argued, it is also false to say that science ignores formal causes. ?Emergent phenomena appear quite explicitly in solid-state physics (e.g. band structure, phonons) and thermodynamics. ?One can hardly imagine doing biology at all without invoking form and function. ?Aristotelians should be gratified that hylomorphic composition has proven inescapable even in the hard sciences. ?Since forms are in science, science can meaningfully contribute to discussions of what things are, not just how they are observed to behave. ?For example, physics at least strongly suggests that heat is random motion of constituent particles and light is an electromagnetic wave, a pattern of motion in an electric and magnetic field. ?One needn?t conclude then that light is ?really? a colorless mechanical oscillation?that is Cartesian prejudice long made obsolete by field theory. ?Electromagnetic waves obviously do have color. ?That these discoveries about heat and light, although they are empirically based, are indeed formal is attested by their certainty. ?We may possibly learn much more about the behavior of nonideal gases or the behavior of light at high energies or in nonlinear media, but it?s impossible to imagine this affecting the overall identifications with random motion and electromagnetism, just as future refinement in our understanding of human physiology can?t possibly shake our recognition of human beings as distinct biological organisms. ?The role of philosophers, then, is to identify the distinctly formal element of scientific discoveries. ?They point out when a distinct pattern has been identified, one that can be recognized and understood independently of refinements in our knowledge of the underlying matter. ?It is often said that every scientific theory is one experiment away from refutation. ?However, these nuggets of formal knowledge, obtained by scientific-philosophical cooperation, are more solid.

What of the more general principles of the philosophy of nature and metaphysics, such as the principle of causality (for the Thomist) or sufficient reason (for the followers of Leibniz)? ?Do the sciences address these at all? ?I admit that I have never experienced Maritain?s ?intuition of being?, and I am not privy to its secrets. ?I also have no way of knowing if it is anything other than his private fantasy. ?Thus, I prefer to build metaphysical principles on abstraction from the sensible world, just as Aristotle himself did. ?General principles having to do with identity and causality should be thought of as the general requirements that any understanding of nature must obey if it is to describe a coherent, intelligible universe. ?Logical consistency is one obvious such prerequisite, and hence the laws of identity and noncontradition, as the metaphysical bases of logical consistency, are seen as metaphysical truths, assumed rather than tested by science. ?However, logical consistency may not be the only prerequisite for an intelligible universe. ?Many metaphysical systems assert that some laws on the operation of causality are also needed.

Restrictions on the operation of causality are the lynchpin of any cosmological argument for the existence of God, the necessary self-subsistent Being who holds all contingent beings in existence. ?The argument must take as one of its premises some statement that contingent/finite/composite beings can?t come into existence or maintain in existence ?by themselves?. ?Why not? ?How is it logically or mathematically impossible to say, as a brute law of nature, that elephants come into existence out of nothing with a rate/probability of one per year per cubic light year? ?It isn?t. ?One could make a consistent mathematical model of a universe in which this is true. ?But would it be coherent?

In a universe where finite beings pop into existence out of metaphysical nothing at a certain rate, we must ask where this rate for each type of object comes from. ?What is it?s ontological ground? ?There are three possibilities that I can think of.

1. The rate is grounded in some background reality into which the created being emerges. ?Then we don?t really have creation from nothing; we have creation from this background object by exercise of the potencies of this existing object.
2. The rate is grounded in ?the laws of nature?. ?That is, these laws are regarded not as descriptions of the nature of existing objects, but as causally active entities (or their enforcer, whatever it is) in their own right. ?Physicists talking to the public about ?the laws of physics? allowing creation from nothing often sound as if this is what they believe. ?However, once we reconceptualize the laws of physics as actual beings, position 2 really becomes a version of position 1. ?In fact, it?s a version of position 1 that suggests a Platonic Demiurge, although I doubt the New Atheists realize this.
3. The rate is grounded in the created object itself. ?Part of the nature of each object is its probability for self-creation.

Only position 3 presents a threat to the cosmological argument. ?Thus, it is sufficient for natural theology to prove that position 3 is incoherent. ?This can be argued as follows. ?Take an object A with self-creation rate p. ?Now imagine another object B whose nature is identical to the first except its self-creation rate is y*p, where y is some arbitrarily large number, large enough that the universe should momentarily fill up with Bs. ?Why doesn?t this happen? ?The only response is that the hypothetical universe is only one with As but not Bs. ?However, before they self-create, every type of object is equally non-existent. ?There is no way of saying that only certain types of objects can self-create if position 3 is true, i.e. if creation is grounded in the emerging object. ?Thus, every logically conceivable object must self-create at every rate, and an intelligible universe is impossible.

It has been objected that creation from nothing happens all the time in particle physics, in the form of particle-antiparticle pairs spontaneously popping out of the vacuum. ?This is an objection that philosophers should take very seriously. ?The phenomenon arises in several contexts. ?In the presence of strong electric or gravitational fields, real particles can be created spontaneously (in the sense that the effect is probabilistic), although the mass-energy, and hence presumably the causal agent, of the new particles comes from the background field. ?The temporary creation of virtual particles also appears in perturbation theory calculations of various scattering rates, decay rates, and correlations. ?As an aside, I think the ontological status of virtual particles is far from clear. ?One can use the same Feynman diagram methods to solve certain classical problems (e.g. the harmonic oscillator), and the virtual states that appear in the calculation are pretty obviously artifacts of the perturbation expansion. ?So in QED, one can ?correct? the noninteracting photon propagator by adding contributions from the photon temporarily splitting into an electron-positron pair. ?Does that mean photons really spend part of their time as pairs, or only that the noninteracting photon is just an approximation to the ?true? photon of the full nonlinear theory and the perturbative expansion shows us how to build the true propagator from analytically tractable simpler ones? ?In any event, even these virtual pair creations are not ?from nothing? since their diagrams always attach (eventually) to the real particles. ?In the above example, the pair comes from a photon. ?In any case, the identification of the vacuum in quantum field theory with metaphysical nothing is the most egregious misstep of all. ?The vacuum can have a nonzero energy, and it is possible that cosmologists have already measured it. ?(The so-called ?cosmological constant? or ?dark energy?). ?Indeed, the existence of a vacuum is not even a generally covariant fact, since an accelerating observer will see particles where an inertial observer sees none. ?Actually, the vacuum has a great deal of structure loaded into it via the Hilbert space we erect to describe it as one state among many and the Lagrangian or Hamiltonian to describe its evolution, which includes information about all possible particles and their energies. ?What grounds these expressions? ?Why can?t I stick energy terms from non-existent particles into the Lagrangian? ?If I do, my answers will be wrong. ?If one attaches quantum field theory to position 3, it becomes vulnerable to all of the?objections to that position. ?It therefore seems that modern particle physics, in spite of its ability to ?create? particles, must be wed to position 1 or 2. ?Position 1 seems to me more natural, given the mathematical similarity of particle physics to the theory of perturbations in solids; in the latter case it is clear that the particles are oscillations of an underlying lattice which provides the metaphysical ground for all the particles? properties. ?I repeat what I said about light: ?asserting that elementary particles are excitations of something doesn?t mean that they?re mechanical oscillations in some sort of ether.

A more serious challenge comes from quantum cosmology. ?In particular, Vilenkin and Hawking and Hartle have proposed models (based on reasonable semiclassical and mini-superspace approximations to a full quantum treatment of the metric of the universe) in which a closed spacetime manifold, representing the whole universe, apparently tunnels into being out of nothing. ?These models evade many of my above objections. ?There is no background space or field to provide the obvious ?something?. ?Since spacetime manifolds themselves are not (or needn?t be) embedded in any background space, this scenario doesn?t fit into the above disproved case of a creation rate per time per volume. ?One might assert that there is no way to identify points on different manifolds and that therefore universes can?t interact, so there is no empirical problem with saying that an infinite number of different universes?every possible one?can and do pop into being out of nothing.

Note that it is irrelevant whether any particular published scenario describes our actual universe. ?Their authors themselves regard them as simplified models, but even nothing like this ever happened, the damage to the cosmological argument would be the same, since that only depends on what is coherently possible. ?A more pertinent inquiry is whether these universe-creation models, e.g. the Hawking-Moss instanton, have been interpreted correctly. ?My impression is that discerning reality is more difficult when working with instantons than when working with the full quantum theory. ?Tunneling ?from nothing? is an obscure and problematic notion. ?Again, something along the lines of position 1 would probably be more natural: ?the spacetime metric is an excitation of some background entity, and the ?nothing? from which it emerged was that entity?s ground state. ?(?Third quantization? models of universe creation lend themselves very easily to such a reading.) ?(A position 2 interpretation could also work, and is at least rhetorically the one preferred by most cosmologists. ?To this, my points on position 2 would apply.)

However, even if I could argue that a position 1 interpretation is more natural, the causality requirement needed by the cosmological argument is still overthrown if a position 3 interpretation is still tenable. ?To genuinely prove the principle of causality, we must grant the alternative every leeway and show that it still can?t work. ?The proponents of self-creation, however, must grant their opponents the right to take the proposed self-creation principle and apply it categorically to every possibility that the principle allows and wreck as much havoc as he can. ?Is it really true that universes can?t interact? ?If the terms in the action are grounded in self-creating metrics, than I can stick anything into them that I like, even if I have to introduce arbitrary mappings between manifolds to make interactions between universes work. ?And I?ll bet I can do this in ways that make two universes interacting distinct from one bimetric universe. ?This is only the first idea that comes to my mind for how to try to wreck a cosmological model that espouses a position 3 interpretation. ?One senses the opportunity for an arms race between theist and atheist theoretical physicists. ?Probably this would not be decisive in itself, but onlooking philosophers would have their imaginations stretched, and they would have a wider sense of possibility than everyday experience provides when formulating their putatively necessary principles.

In my defense of religion, I presented something like the no-popping argument above. ?I then proposed an explanation of this principle, namely that beings for whom multiple instantiation is possible must be receiving their existence from outside. ?This allowed me to disregard possibilities such as that contingent beings have perpetually existed on existential inertia or that there is a force that suppresses self-creation in an already occupied universe (what I call the ?crowding out? possibility) without having to find a particular inconsistency in any of them. ?This has always struck me as the weakest part of my argument, because I?ve never proven that there is no rival metaphysical principle that could explain no-popping without ruling out the other atheist alternatives. ?An argument that took direct aim at a stronger alternative, the best theoretical physicists could muster, would have had a stronger effect and made the leap to metaphysical principle smaller. ?Thus, I have entitled this post part 1 of a series, hoping the implicit promise will prompt me to address this issue properly.

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Source: http://orthosphere.org/2012/12/31/something-from-nothing-i-the-relevance-of-science-to-philosophy/

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Eric Chua : Life, Business and Real Estate in Singapore ? Maximize ...

It may be hard to start out, particularly if your business has a lot of competition. Choosing a variety of methods for your Internet marketing is essential learning what works and what doesn?t. This article will give you just the tips you need to put your business first.

Use press releases or blurb in industry blogs as a way to promote your business and bring in traffic. Once you learn to write good press releases, you can find a number of places to have them published online. This is an excellent way of boosting your standing on the Internet.

If you want to stand out as an authority to people who consider purchasing your product, try to actually interview authorities to post on your site. Before you publish anything, be certain of getting permission. You don?t want to suffer legal problems. Next, create articles out of the interviews and upload them to E-zine directories. This can get you sales, credibility and more traffic.

TIP! Your website should highlight at least one feature that is unique and remarkable. Doing so will likely increase the traffic of people interested in the product.

The advertisement of your product should always be positive and inspiring. Tell people about the benefits that they will receive and the goals that they can reach by purchasing what you have to sell. People will feel good about buying your product if it makes them feel good about themselves.

This following article offers advice and information regarding internet promotion. Your site?s landing page needs to lay out a clear objective. Your site is about selling the product. The product that is available for sale should be very transparent to the page reader from the moment they arrive. If your visitors have to search for content or products they are seeking, chances are they will leave quickly.

Creating and maintaining an interesting blog is a great way to draw in visitors. Regularly posting fresh content is a great thing for attracting viewers. People will visit more frequently if they know that there will be something new to read each time they visit.

TIP! If you are trying to find a niche market, learn what people are complaining the most about. Why, you may ask? This way, you can find out what problems need to be solved.

Try offering special discounts for buying the same product regularly. If there is a way to offer a monthly supply of your product, a subscription is a great way to keep them coming back for more.

Make sure that you implement all sorts of different software to make your Affiliate marketing strategy as successful as possible. If you fall behind, your customers will notice it and start to doubt you. On the other hand, if you demonstrate a willingness to take risks and employ cutting-edge business tactics, customers will respect your innovative practices.

Money is required to buy a quality domain. The assurance of obtaining the exact domain name as your business name is a long shot. If you can muster up $1,000 to $2,000, you?ll be able to afford a domain name that closely fits your company.

TIP! Make sure to give your customers opportunities to easily buy similar products to the one they have just purchased. For instance, if you sell shirts on your site and a customer buys a Hawaiian shirt, send them links to the other Hawaiian shirts you sell.

One tip you should follow is offering retail and wholesale prices. You should make profits on wholesales, but this can help you boost the number of products you sell.

It is in your best interest to try get your customers emotionally involved with your service or product. Encourage your reader to visualize their life and how much easier it would be when they use your product. Your ad should be so good that people should be able to imagine using your products while they are reading about them.

Make sure that you stay on top of all of the newest Internet developments. The internet is forever morphing, it is very useful to keep up with new things and websites so you can put your niche in the public eye.

TIP! Try to make your ads look unique, instead of traditional and common banner ads. Make your banner ad look more appealing and unique and people will be more likely to click.

Be sure that you keep very detailed statistics. Be it your sales, traffic, referrals or whatever, make sure you track everything you can. Keeping accurate records will ensure that you take proper action whenever the need arises.

The more ways you offer to take payments, the simpler it is for customers to purchase items on your site. If you can do some decent business when you insist on having your customers use credit cards, just imagine how much more you?ll do if you give them other options, like bank account transfers or Paypal.

Use words that inspire consumer confidence, like ?guarantee.? Clients like to know there is no chance to lose money on your product. There are a number of different guarantees you can make on everything from quality to durability to satisfaction. You can try a 90 day guarantee or a lifetime guarantee. Which guarantee you will offer will be subject to the products you are selling.

TIP! Address any complaints personally. You might be tempted, as a busy business owner, to outsource customer service, but you will build much better customer relations if you take care of them yourself.

If you like to use e-mails as one of your primary modes of connecting with your customers, you should ensure that you mix up the information that you provide them with. A block of links that remain the same with every email your customers receive is easy to start ignoring. Variety in the content of your emails will attract reader?s attention and keep them reading.

Consider posting user polls on your website to get feedback on issues important to your market. This will make readers feel included, and it will also help you maintain popular content on your site.

Finding your niche is key to your website and online business. You will have a difficult time selling something to someone that shows absolutely no interest in what you are offering. Customers do online searches for the items that are of the most interest to them and are more likely to buy those items. So before you go rushing to advertise your business to whomever it may concern, make sure you narrow your focus in order to improve the end results.

TIP! You should consider supporting a charity. Choosing one that all of your customers would support, and donating some of your profits, can increase your revenue and credibility.

Finally, remember focus is crucial for Web marketing. As previously stated, take the time to set up everything correctly, so that marketing can help your business. Make use of the advice you have read here to see an increase in traffic, and more importantly, in sales.

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Source: http://www.maynaseric.com/maximize-your-affiliate-marketing-with-these-tips

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New Year's new birth of freedom in Washington, Gettysburg

As New Year's Day approached 150 years ago, all eyes were on President Abraham Lincoln in expectation of what he warned 100 days earlier would be coming - his final proclamation declaring all slaves in states rebelling against the Union to be "forever free."

A tradition began Dec. 31, 1862, as many black churches held Watch Night services, awaiting word that Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation would take effect amid a bloody Civil War. Later, congregations listened as the president's historic words were read aloud.

The proclamation would not end slavery outright and at the time couldn't be enforced by Lincoln in areas under Confederate control. But the president made clear from that day forward that his forces would be fighting to bring the Union back together without the institution of slavery.

Lincoln issued his preliminary Emancipation Proclamation in September 1862, after the Battle of Antietam, announcing that if rebel states did not cease fighting and rejoin the Union by Jan. 1, 1863, all slaves in rebellious states or parts of states would be declared free from that date forward.

This year, the Watch Night tradition will follow the historic document to its home at the National Archives with a special midnight display planned with readings, songs and bell ringing among the nation's founding documents. And in Gettysburg, local volunteers will be stationed outside the David Wills House in Lincoln Square,

where President Lincoln completed writing the Gettysburg Address, with information and activities for adults and children.

The official document bears Lincoln's signature and the United States seal, setting it apart from copies and drafts. It will make a rare public appearance from Sunday to Tuesday - New Year's Day - for thousands of visitors to mark its anniversary. On New Year's Eve, the display will remain open past midnight as 2013 arrives.

"We will be calling back to an old

FILE - This Feb. 9, 2009 file photo shows the first draft of President Abraham Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation that Lincoln presented to his full cabinet on July 22, 1862, displayed at the Library of Congress in Washington. As New Year's Day approached 150 years ago, all eyes were on President Abraham Lincoln in expectation of what he warned 100 days earlier would be coming _ his final proclamation declaring all slaves in states rebelling against the Union to be ?forever free.?A tradition began on Dec. 31, 1862, as many black churches held Watch Night services, awaiting word that Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation would take effect as the country was in the midst of a bloody Civil War. Later, congregations listened as the president's historic words were read aloud. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File) (Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

tradition," said U.S. Archivist David Ferriero, noting the proclamation's legacy. "When you see thousands of people waiting in line in the dark and cold ... we know that they're not there just for words on paper.

"On this 150th anniversary, we recall those who struggled with slavery in this country, the hope that sustained them and the inspiration the Emancipation Proclamation has given to those who seek justice."

The National Archives allows 100 visitors at a time into its rotunda, where the Emancipation Proclamation will be displayed along with the Constitution and Declaration of Independence. On the busiest days, 8,000 people file through for a glimpse of the founding charters.

Performances and re-enactments are scheduled to continue throughout New Year's Day. The U.S. Postal Service will unveil a new Emancipation Proclamation stamp as well.

This special display is just one of many commemorations planned in Washington and in churches nationwide to mark the anniversary of Lincoln's actions to end slavery and end the Civil War.

President Lincoln's Cottage in Washington, where the 16th president spent much of his time and where he began drafting the proclamation, is displaying a signed copy of the document through February. It also will host its own New Year's Eve celebration.

The Library of Congress will display the first draft handwritten by Lincoln. It will be on display for six weeks beginning Jan. 3 in the library's exhibit, "The Civil War in America," which features many personal letters and diaries from the era.

Also, the Smithsonian's National Museum of African American History and Culture just opened its newest exhibition, "Changing America," to recount the 1863 emancipation of slaves and the 1963 March on Washington for Civil Rights. It includes a rare signed copy of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution that ultimately abolished slavery.

The Watch Night tradition also continues at many sites Monday night.

In Washington, the Metropolitan A.M.E. Church, where abolitionist Frederick Douglass was a member, will host a special 150th anniversary service.

History lovers say this is a chance to remember what the Emancipation Proclamation actually signified.

Lincoln wrote in part: "I do order and declare that all persons held as slaves within said designated States, and parts of States, are, and henceforward, shall be free."

He went on to say the military would recognize the freedom of slaves, that freed slaves should avoid violence and that freed slaves could enlist in the U.S. armed forces. It did not immediately free a single slave, though, because Lincoln didn't have the power to enforce the declaration in the Confederacy.

Still, many slaves had already been freeing themselves, and the document gave them protection, said Reginald Washington, an archivist of African-American history at the National Archives.

"It was a first, important step in paving the way for the abolishment of slavery with the ratification of the 13th Amendment," he said.

It also brought "a fundamental change in the character of the war," Washington said. "With the stroke of Lincoln's pen, a war to preserve the union had overnight become a war of human liberation."

The proclamation became a symbol of hope for nearly 4 million slaves and a confirmation that the war should be fought to secure their freedom, said Washington, who is retiring from the Archives after nearly 40 years. Some historians and scholars have come to view to proclamation as one of the most important documents in U.S. history.

The final proclamation has been rarely shown because it was badly damaged decades ago by long exposure to light. After it was signed at the White House, it was kept at the State Department for many years with other presidential proclamations. In 1936, it was transferred to the National Archives.

Records show it was displayed between 1947 and 1949 in a "Freedom Train" exhibit that traveled the country. Then it was shown briefly in January 1963 to mark the 100th anniversary of its signing.

It wasn't until 1993 that the Emancipation Proclamation has been shown more regularly to the public. In the past decade, it has been shown in 10 other museums and libraries nationwide for no more than three days at a time to limit its exposure to light.

A 2011 exhibition at the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, Mich., that was open around the clock drew lines amounting to eight-hour waits to see the document.

Conservators rotate which of the five pages are shown to limit their light exposure. In Washington, they will display pages two and five, which is Lincoln's signature page. High-quality copies are shown in place of the other original pages.

"It's rarely shown, and that's part of our strategy for preserving it and making it accessible," said Catherine Nicholson, an archives conservator. "Our goal is to keep its current condition so that it can be enjoyed not only by people today, but by future generations."

Gettysburg celebration

What: Freedom's Eve celebration in Gettysburg

When: Monday, Dec. 31 at 9 p.m.

Where: Outside the David Wills House in Lincoln Square

Details: Anyone interested in volunteering with the event should contact Rosalie Dillan at 717-677-6064.

Source: http://www.eveningsun.com/localnews/ci_22279021/new-years-new-birth-freedom-washington-gettysburg?source=rss

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Twitter Watch: Andrew Lloyd Webber-'Had to Come Back to the UK for a Back Operation'

BroadwayWorld.com presents Twitter Watch, which brings you only the best and most interesting reports straight from the mouths of Broadway stars, shows and more on the hot social networking service - Twitter!

On Twitter, Andrew Lloyd Webber had this to say @OfficialALW

Unfortunately had to come back to the UK for a back op. It's apparently been successful - didn't want to interrupt my work next year. ALW.

For more of Twitter Watch, Click Here!

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HUFFPOST HILL - Ruined Holiday Cliff Not Averted

America is rapidly approaching the cliff cliff, the moment when Congress finally averts our growing number of cliffs. Dr. Ruth said politicians opposed to compromise are probably bad in bed, shattering our view of Chuck Grassley. And President Obama will appear on Meet the Press to discuss the fiscal cliff negotiations, though no word on whether David Gregory will be allowed to conduct the interview from his prison cell. This is HUFFPOST HILL for Friday, December 28th, 2012:

PRESIDENTIAL COUNCIL ON FISCAL FITNESS - The top four congressional leaders met with President Obama today in hopes of achieving a last-minute deal to avert the fiscal cliff and allow Washington to get on with the business of creating another manufactured crisis. Speaking to reporters in the White House Briefing Room after the meeting, President Obama called the gathering "good and constructive" and said he is "modestly optimistic" a deal will be reached. He added that Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell are working on an agreement, confirming that the ball is in the Senate's court. During the meeting, Speaker John Boehner reportedly insisted that a deal must originate in the upper chamber. If the Senate leaders cannot come to an agreement, Obama said, he would ask Reid to hold an up-or-down vote on a short term measure that would extend unemployment insurance, maintain tax rates for incomes under $250,000 and establish a framework for a longer term agreement next year. Earlier, Reid, speaking on the Senate floor, said there was "not a lot of hilarity in the meeting," meaning Nancy Pelosi likely kept her famously hilarious Aristocrats jokes to herself. He also said the Senate would reconvene Sunday at 1:00 pm, presumably to give a day or so to hammer out some kind of agreement that could be voted on.

@mpoindc: President Obama will appear exclusively on @meetthepress this Sunday, as was just announced on the @NBCNews special report.

Piping hot CW, just out of the oven: "Hill aides on both sides of the ledger said they could envision support for a scaled-down proposal that included tax rates extended for income under $400,000, no change to the estate tax, an extension of unemployment insurance, no money for infrastructure and no resolution to the impending debt ceiling standoff. What would happen with the $1 trillion or so in sequestration cuts set to kick in on Jan. 1, 2013 and take place over the course of ten years was unclear" [HuffPost's Sam Stein and Jen Bendery]

@jamespmanley: Pro tip: I love the guy, but senator reid usually looks downcast

HOT AIR UPDATE: BIG DAY FOR FILIBUSTER REFORM - Sens. John McCain and Carl Levin briefed their caucuses and reporters on their counter proposal to filibuster reform, which they're offering as a "standing order" rather than an actual rules change. A standing order only requires 60 votes rather than 67 and would expire at the end of the next Congress. It's mostly a handshake agreement, but would also eliminate the filibuster on the motion to proceed, streamline some nominations, and give Republicans what they've been asking for on amendments -- the freedom to offer Viagra-related measures on whatever they want. As they say in the newspapers, it's not clear why Reid would be willing to accept something that makes the situation, in an important way, worse for him rather than better. Emerging from a caucus meeting today, several Democrats said it seemed pretty clear that there are 51 votes for doing something more dramatic than what Reid wants. Lamar Alexander, part of the group of eight that eschews the gang label, said what we need is better behavior. "We have so many new members of the Senate, about half of the senators have never seen the Senate work properly because they've only been here five or six years," Alexander said. "So we're trying to get back to the days when the motion to proceed wasn't used to block so many bills and when the majority leader allowed senators to offer almost any amendment. Most of that has to be established by practice, by good behavior, rather than by changing the rules."

CARDIN BREAKS RANKS, JOINS FILIBUSTER OPPONENTS - Ben Cardin, whose class of '06 colleagues are among the leaders of the filibuster reform movement, spent the day huddling in Jon Kyl's office trying to kill it. We asked him why. He said it came down to judges -- he and Barbara Mikulski, he said, are at risk of losing judges who've already been nominated but are stuck in the muck of the confirmation process.

Dennis Kucinich wrote a "what a wild crazy journey it's been" email/yearbook note to the press: "Dear Members of the Press, It has been an honor and a privilege to serve our nation together in our mutual pursuit of truth and understanding. While I will not be returning to the 113th session of the House of Representatives, I will continue to be active. Beginning January 3, 2013 media inquiries should be directed to [Omitted here so we'll just say "FunGrl43@mindspring.com"]. I wish you all the best in 2013 and beyond. Sincerely, Dennis Kucinich Member of Congress."

DAILY DELANEY DOWNER - Debi Ogg of Tulsa, Okla. lost her job handling collections for an electric company in May. Her state-funded unemployment insurance lasted until the beginning of December, and then Ogg switched over to federal benefits, which are supposed to last 14 weeks in Oklahoma. But when Ogg filed her weekly claim earlier this month, she was told she would not receive 14 weeks after all. "That was the first I knew of it," Ogg said. "And then about two weeks after that, we got a letter saying there would be no more benefits after Dec. 29." Now Ogg is paying close attention to Congress. She is one of more than 2 million Americans the National Employment Law Project estimates will stop receiving benefits after Saturday, when federal unemployment benefits will almost certainly go away because Congress has not reauthorized them. Ogg, 60, said lawmakers seem indifferent to the practical impact the fiscal cliff is already having on some people. "I think they could have made their decision a long time ago, but it's just a power-play type of thing," Ogg said. "I think they've lost touch with how it affects people getting up and going to the grocery store, or sitting down to pay their bills." Ogg said she bought Christmas presents this year for her grandchildren, but not for their parents or her own parents. "Everybody fully understood," she said. [HuffPost]

Does somebody keep forwarding you this newsletter? Get your own copy. It's free! Sign up here. Send tips/stories/photos/events/fundraisers/job movement/juicy miscellanea to huffposthill@huffingtonpost.com. Follow us on Twitter - @HuffPostHill

WALL STREET NOT FAZED BY FISCAL CLIFF - Traders appear to less sensitive to the impending economic crisis than the women they dumped their beers on last Saturday at The Growler on Stone Street ("C'mon, Nate, our Uber is here"). Zach Carter: "Over the past month, financial investors and speculators have largely shrugged off federal lawmakers' inability to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, despite loud warnings in Beltway circles that failure to reach a deal would cause economic calamity. Although markets have seen some modest hiccups, stock prices have been roughly flat for December, preserving the steady gains of the previous 11 months of 2012. The reaction to U.S. Treasury bonds has been similarly muted. On Thursday, the interest rate on 10-year bonds was 1.74 percent, up slightly from 1.62 percent at the beginning of the month. The interest rate on Treasury bonds measures how risky investors perceive American debt to be. High rates mean investors believe the debt to be risky, and are demanding greater return for their money. Low rates mean investors think the debt is safe. So far, lawmakers' failure to reach a deal has not caused a crisis of investor confidence in the government's ability to pay its bills." [HuffPost]

Americans, however, seem to have noticed: "An online HuffPost/YouGov poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday found that 51 percent of Americans thought a fiscal cliff deal was not very or not at all likely, up from 36 percent in late November. Only 8 percent thought a deal was very likely." [HuffPost's Ariel Edwards-Levy]

In our inbox: "Tell Congressional leaders, President Barack Obama, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that an alcohol excise tax increase of $182.5 billion over ten years is a major step back from the edge of the fiscal cliff." Booooooo. ::burp::

SO MANY CLIFFS - Congress is starting to feel a bit like an REI commercial. NBC News: "Overlooked in the fiscal cliff debate is the looming 'dairy cliff.'...A gallon of milk now costs an average of $3.65. But that price could soar to $6 or even $8 a gallon without a new farm bill. The reason? One part of the Farm Bill controls the dairy market. Without it, pricing would go back to an outdated law put in place during the Truman era. The government would be required to buy dairy products based on 1949 production costs, when milking was done by hand. That would double today's price. Farmers would lose incentive to sell directly to producers and prices in the grocery store would skyrocket...Unlike the fiscal cliff and dairy cliff, the 'retail cliff' isn't the result of a dysfunctional Congress. More than 14,000 East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers are threatening to go on strike Sunday. That could cost the economy billions of dollars. Goods such as flat screen televisions, sneakers and clothing would sit idle at ports, or get rerouted -- a costly proposition for retailers who would likely pass the cost on to consumers. The 15 ports involved in the labor dispute move more than 100 million tons of goods each year, or about 40% of the nation's containerized cargo traffic." [NBC]

President Obama's reelection wasn't just brought about by scruffy, tech-savvy, home brewing hipsters and awkward, air-punching campaign managers, it was also the product of a lot of ladies, as this list points out.

KERRY TELLS PRIMARY TO GO JUMP IN A LAKE, ENDORSES MARKEY FOR SENATE - Along with a growing list of establishment endorsements, Ed Markey has a lot more money than his would-be primary challengers, so unless Nomar Garciaparra mates with a Dunkin' Donuts breakfast sandwich, and that delicious child runs for the vacant seat as a Democrat, the nomination is probably Markey's. Luke Johnson: "Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) endorsed Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) on Friday to replace him in the Senate. The endorsement came one day after Markey had announced his candidacy, making him the prohibitive frontrunner in a Democratic primary race to succeed Kerry following his likely Senate confirmation as secretary of state. 'While I began last week to formally step out of politics and it's very important that I respect the apolitical nature of the post I hope to soon occupy, as Massachusetts' senior senator today and as a colleague of Ed Markey's for 28 years, I'm excited to learn of and support his decision to run for the United States Senate,' said Kerry in a statement." [HuffPost]

@JillDLawrence: John Kerry, Vicki Kennedy, DSCC chair Michael Bennet back Markey. Who's left? @barackobama? @elizabethforma? Dominoes falling fast #MASEN

CONGRESS SUCKS, YO - Amanda Terkel: "According to a Huffington Post review of all the bills that hit President Barack Obama's desk this session, Obama has signed 219 bills passed by the 112th Congress into law. With less than a week to go in the year, there are currently another 20 bills pending presidential action. In comparison, the last Congress passed 383 bills, while the one before it passed 460. The 104th Congress (1995-1996) currently holds the ignominious distinction of being the least productive session of Congress, according to the U.S. House Clerk's Office, which has records going back to 1947. Just 333 bills became law during that two-year period, meaning the 112th Congress needs to send nearly 100 more bills to Obama's desk in the next few days if it wants to avoid going down in history -- an unlikely prospect, considering that both chambers are squarely focused on averting the "fiscal cliff" before the new year. The 112th Congress has done far less than the 80th Congress (1947-1948), which President Harry Truman infamously dubbed the 'Do-Nothing Congress.' Those lawmakers passed 906 bills that became law." [HuffPost]

War on Christmas the week when you're supposed to go home and catch up with your high school friends: "The House and Senate have held numerous pro forma sessions during the week between Christmas and New Year over the years, and in 1995 during a major budget battle. But the last time they held roll call votes that week, before Thursday, was during the second session of the 91st Congress, in 1970, amid a large spending fight and a filibuster over financing for a supersonic transport plane." [NYT]

HOUSE DEMOCRATS TO INTRODUCE HIGH-CAPACITY MAGAZINE BAN - Which aims to reduce the slaughter of innocent children, so naturally the GOP will block it and/or add an amendment that requires people in wheelchairs and/or women's healthcare service providers to be pushed off of the NRA headquarters' roof. Sam Stein: "House Democrats will introduce legislation to ban the production of high-capacity magazines on the first day of the next congressional session, the office of Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), one of the lawmakers sponsoring the bill, told The Huffington PostThe Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Device Act will mirror a failed bill introduced during the 112th Congress. Its authors hope that in the wake of the shooting deaths of 20 first grade students in Newtown, Conn., there will be heightened political urgency to act when it is reintroduced on Jan. 3. Backed by DeGette and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.), the legislation has gained a wave of Democratic co-sponsors since the shooting, which also claimed the lives of 7 adults...backers are hopeful, noting that a ban on high-capacity magazines... would be a smaller concession for gun-rights advocates than a broader assault weapons ban." [HuffPost]

HOUSE AMENDS TRAVEL RULES - So just be a little bit more careful next time that AIPAC lobbyist ferries you to an urgent meeting in Tel Aviv in El Al first class. Roll Call: "The House Ethics Committee announced on Thursday that it has adopted new regulations for accepting privately financed congressional travel, including heightened disclosure requirements and earlier approval deadlines...The deadline for submitting pre-travel authorization forms to the committee will now be 30 days prior to departure instead of two weeks. New certification forms will require additional information about trip sponsors for increased transparency. Sponsors will be responsible for filling out the post-travel disclosure forms that will be filed by traveling members and staffers. There are also more explicit definitions of travel-related terms in the new guidance issued by the committee." [Roll Call]

We're all snowflakes, political edition: "As the incoming class of congressmen prepare to take the oath office, one Republican newcomer has already come out against the National Rifle Association's proposal to place armed guards at every school and signaled his openness to discussing a set of gun control measures. Rep.-elect Chris Stewart (R-Utah), an end times novelist supported by pundit Glenn Beck, cruised to victory in November in his deeply red district, after receiving high marks and a small donation from the NRA. In an interview with the Salt Lake Tribune this week, however, Stewart said that the gun control discussion was one that he was willing to have in the wake of the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre." [HuffPost's Nick Wing]

BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR - Peter the Pheasant is the most stubborn pheasant that ever was.

COMFORT FOOD

- This 24/7 live stream of pointer puppies is why we're glad the Mayans were wrong. [http://bit.ly/V74fFQ]

- Transforming a Henri Rousseau painting into a 3D world for a commercial. [http://bit.ly/VE2e2c]

- Who knew you could skip a golf ball across water like a flat rock? [http://chzb.gr/WKkKc8]

- Remember "Prison Break"? Neither do we. But these two cats sure do. [http://huff.to/V9cdhY]

TWITTERAMA

@AskDrRuth: Members of Congress who can't compromise probably aren't good lovers. Sex requires give and take.

@ElaheIzadi: Modestly Optimistic is the title of my forthcoming memoir.

@stefanjbecket: So now the nation turns to the Senate, the world's quickest and most efficient legislative body.

Got something to add? Send tips/quotes/stories/photos/events/fundraisers/job movement/juicy miscellanea to Eliot Nelson (eliot@huffingtonpost.com), Ryan Grim (ryan@huffingtonpost.com) or Arthur Delaney (arthur@huffingtonpost.com). Follow us on Twitter @HuffPostHill (twitter.com/HuffPostHill). Sign up here: http://huff.to/an2k2e

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Japan's New PM Tours Crippled Fukushima Nuclear Plant (Voice Of America)

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Education & Reference 2016: Petal the Owl Colours - alyeuokbu& ...

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Source: http://jonopriaiona.blogspot.com/2012/12/education-reference-2016-petal-owl.html

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A lot on the line in finale

Do-or-die games for Vikings, Bears, Cowboys in Week 17

Tim Shaffer / Reuters

Redskins?quarterback Robert Griffin III can clinch rookie records for completion percentage (66.4 percent) and passer rating (104.1) with a good performance against the Cowboys on Sunday.

Opinion

By Scott Kacsmar

NBCSports.com contributor

updated 12:20 p.m. ET Dec. 27, 2012

Hard to believe, but we have reached the end of the NFL?s 2012 regular season. Was it not that long ago that we had replacement referees and the Arizona Cardinals were 4-0? Yet here we are, days away from that last Sunday until next September in which all 32 teams will play a real game. Savor the moment.

Week 17 offers numerous playoff scenarios, the last two playoff berths, and one more attempt to rewrite the NFL record book. Here is your handy guide to what to watch for this Sunday. All 16 games are divisional rematches.

AFC South
The Houston Texans (12-3) have been in the driver?s seat of the AFC all season, yet a loss in Indianapolis (10-5) will likely push them all the way to the No. 3 seed, which means no first-round bye.

It is a very important game for Houston, which just beat the Colts 29-17 in a Week 15 game dominated by J.J. Watt. He has 20.5 sacks, eyeing Michael Strahan?s record of 22.5 sacks set in 2001.

For the Colts, Bruce Arians had one of the finest runs ever as an interim coach, leading the team to a 9-3 record. Chuck Pagano triumphantly returns to the sidelines this week as his battle with leukemia continues to inspire this team of underdogs.

Despite their -42 scoring differential, the Colts are 10-5. They have done so by going 9-1 in games decided by 1-7 points. Andrew Luck has already set the rookie passing record (4,183 yards), and has tied the regular season record with seven game-winning drives.

While the Colts are locked into the No. 5 seed, they are still a young team that can use the experience against a quality opponent. It is hard to imagine they will not go all out for the win with Pagano?s return. The Colts are 10-0 all time at home against Houston.

You can say Peyton Manning?s injury last year helped pave the way for drafting Luck. Now Manning will be looking for some help in return, as a Colts? victory over Houston is the path for Manning?s Broncos to get the No. 1 seed this year.

Jacksonville (2-13) has a slight chance of securing the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss to Tennessee (5-10). The only other need is a Kansas City win in Denver, so good luck there. Think of your imminent future with Tim Tebow as a consolation prize, Jacksonville fans.

AFC North
With Baltimore (10-5) clinching the division last week, there is little on the line against playoff-bound Cincinnati (9-6), which is locked into the sixth seed. Ray Lewis is back, but he is not expected to play on Sunday. The Ravens have won four straight over the Bengals, who are making back-to-back playoff trips for the first time since 1981-1982.

A Baltimore win combined with a New England loss would give the Ravens the No. 3 seed, but that is not a likely scenario. Besides, that would mean the Ravens would host these very same Bengals a week later, and it is hard to beat a team twice in one week.

Only pride is on the line for Pittsburgh and Cleveland. The Steelers (7-8) will look to avoid their first losing season since 2003, while the Browns (5-10) have not swept the Steelers since 1988.

AFC West
In a season full of inconsistent play, the Denver Broncos (12-3) are a glimmer of hope. They have won 10 straight games by at least seven points. All other AFC winning streaks combined add up to just eight games. Ranking top five on both offense and defense, Denver might be the most complete team in the league.

Peyton Manning will look to cap off his campaign for a fifth MVP award. His 12 consecutive games with a passer rating of at least 90.0 is the third longest streak in NFL history. Only Aaron Rodgers (13 games in 2011) and Manning again (15 games in 2004) had longer streaks.

Consistency is the name of the game, and that?s what Manning has brought to Denver as it looks towards a run at the Super Bowl. A win will give the Broncos a first-round bye.

The Chiefs (2-13) have consistently been bad this year, and will likely have the first pick in the draft. If they should fail to get a takeaway, they will tie the NFL record for fewest takeaways (12) in a 16-game season. The 2006 Washington Redskins also had 12 takeaways.

San Diego (6-9) plays Oakland (4-11), which should be the swansong for Norv Turner?s run there. Turner is 55-40 (.579) and 3-3 in the postseason as San Diego?s head coach.

AFC East
With a home finale against Miami (7-8), New England (11-4) can be anywhere from the No. 1 to No. 4 seed depending on Sunday?s results. If the Patriots score at least 32 points, they will have the second-highest scoring season in NFL history. Miami is looking for its third non-losing season since 2004.

Buffalo (5-10) and the Jets (6-9) will play a Week 1 rematch. The season cannot possibly end any faster for these two teams.

NFC South
Atlanta (13-2) can tie its 1998 Super Bowl team for the best record in franchise history with a win over reeling Tampa Bay (6-9), which has lost five straight games. The Falcons have already clinched the NFC?s No. 1 seed.

New Orleans (7-8) can end its troubled season with a win over Carolina (6-9), which would give the Panthers a second straight 6-10 finish.

Cam Newton needs one touchdown pass to join Dan Marino, Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton as the only quarterbacks to throw at least 20 touchdowns in each of their first two seasons. Meanwhile, Drew Brees needs one touchdown pass to become the first player in NFL history with consecutive seasons of 40 or more touchdown passes.

Brees only needs 219 yards to reach 5,000 yards passing for the third time in his career. Matthew Stafford (305) and Tony Romo (315) also are in position to throw for 5,000 yards, which would match last season?s total of three quarterbacks hitting the milestone.

NFC North
The NFC North will have a huge impact on the final playoff seeds as both games are involved with many of Sunday?s scenarios. They also will feature two of the league?s best players looking for a 2,000-yard milestone.

Green Bay (11-4) travels to Minnesota (9-6) in a late afternoon game. With a win, the Packers will clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Vikings need a win just to make the playoffs, which is their best scenario.

A Minnesota win could very well mean these teams will meet again next week, but it will not be easy. The Packers are hot, winners in nine of their last 10 games, and have won five straight against the Vikings.

Minnesota just pulled off an upset in Houston, even without Adrian Peterson having his best game. Peterson needs 102 rushing yards to become the league?s seventh 2,000-yard rusher, and will need 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson?s all-time record (2,105 yards).

Peterson had 210 yards when these teams met in Week 13, but the Packers won. For the Vikings to make the playoffs, they are going to need Christian Ponder to step up.

The Chicago Bears (9-6) are still alive. They have to take care of the Lions (4-11), and hope for the Vikings to lose. Should Chicago falter, it will become just the fourth team to start 7-1 and fail to make the playoffs since 1978. The Bears would join the 1987 San Diego Chargers, 1988 New Orleans Saints and 1996 Washington Redskins.

Standing in their way is a pass-happy Detroit team. Matthew Stafford needs seven pass attempts to surpass Drew Bledsoe?s record of 691 passes in 1994. Unless he is injured, Stafford will become the first quarterback ever to throw 700 passes in a season. He can also break Bledsoe?s record for most drop backs in a season. Bledsoe had 757 while Stafford is currently at 745.

Detroit needs just 12 pass attempts to break the team record for a season, which is currently held by the 1981 Minnesota Vikings (709 attempts).

The beneficiary of all these attempts is Calvin Johnson, who now holds the record for most receiving yards in a season with 1,892 yards. He needs just 108 to become the first player ever with 2,000 receiving yards, and you figure Detroit will do all it can to get him there.

NFC West
Despite their bad loss on Sunday night, the San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) should have little trouble clinching the NFC West with a win at home over Arizona (5-10). The banged-up 49ers will just have to root for Minnesota to take care of the Packers in order to get the No. 2 seed and what appears to be some needed rest.

Seattle (10-5) is already in the playoffs, and will likely be the No. 5 seed. Though they lost to the Rams (7-7-1) way back in Week 4, this is a much stronger team now.

Not only is Seattle one of two teams (Atlanta) that are 7-0 at home this year, but their home scoring differential of 141 is easily the best in the league. Denver is a distant second at 94 points.

Russell Wilson needs two touchdown passes to break Peyton Manning?s rookie record of 26 touchdown passes set in 1998. Seattle has scored 150 points over the last three weeks, and is +11 in turnover differential since their bye week (4-1 record).

For the Ram, a win would give them their first winning season since 2003. That would be a strong way to end Jeff Fisher?s first season in St. Louis, but not a likely outcome.

NFC East
Finally we have the media darlings of the NFC East. For the New York Giants (8-7) to make the playoffs and defend their championship, they need a lot of help.

Not only do the Giants need to beat the Eagles (4-11), but they need Chicago, Minnesota and Dallas to lose. Technically they can get in if Dallas ties, but that?s not going to happen. They will be extremely fortunate just to get all the other results to go their way.

While most probably expect the Vikings and Cowboys to lose this week, and for Chicago to potentially lose, there is no guarantee the Giants can take care of the Eagles, who will start Michael Vick this week.

It has been a very inconsistent season for the Giants, who have looked like the best and worst team in the league at different moments throughout the season. The Giants would become the seventh defending Super Bowl champion since 1990 to miss the postseason should their miracle scenario not play out.

Then there is the 256th and final regular season game of the 2012 season: Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Washington Redskins (9-6) for the NFC East title on Sunday Night Football.

For the third time since 2008, the Cowboys go on the road in Week 17 for a "win and you?re in" playoff game against one of their NFC East rivals. The last two times have not gone well, but this Dallas team is different. It has been winning a lot of tough games in the second half of the season, and Tony Romo is playing very well.

Also playing well is Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III, who can clinch rookie records for completion percentage (66.4 percent) and passer rating (104.1) with a good performance. Griffin making the playoffs would mean three rookie quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson) in the postseason for the first time ever.

Not sure which buttons Mike Shanahan pressed during the team?s bye week, but Washington has turned a 3-6 season into a possible seven-game winning streak that will allow the Redskins to host a playoff game for the first time since the 1999 season.

While it is do-or-die for Dallas, the Redskins can still make the playoffs with losses by the Bears and Vikings, which they will know before the game starts. But if they want to do things the right way, they take care of this one at home.

Either way, let?s just hope for a competitive final game to close out this wild regular season.

Scott Kacsmar (@CaptainComeback) writes for Cold, Hard Football Facts, Bleacher Report, Colts Authority, and contributes data to Pro-Football-Reference.com and NFL Network.

? 2012 NBC Sports.com? Reprints

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More news

A lot on the line in finale

??Week 17 offers numerous playoff scenarios, the last two playoff berths, and one more attempt to rewrite the NFL record book. Here is your handy guide to what to watch for this Sunday.

PFT's picks: Vikings won't stop Packers

The Vikings are playing for a postseason berth. The Packers are playing for a bye. The Packers remain the better team, and they have every reason to demonstrate that on Sunday.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/50302329/ns/sports-nfl/

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